How to Do Precisely the Right Thing at All Possible Times

[qatarperegrine]

I just finished reading Stumbling on Happiness, by Harvard psych prof Daniel Gilbert, which was a really fun read.

As soon as I started reading it, I realized that the author's style was very familiar: I'd listened to a talk he gave last summer, called How to Do Precisely the Right Thing at All Possible Times. It was a fabulous talk on how terrible people are at calculating probability and utility -- the two things we have to figure out in order to decide what course of action will make us most happy. He has tons of fun examples that have stuck with me for a long time. The mp3 of it is here.

Comments

[y-pestis.livejournal.com]

After listening to the first minute of the mp3... what IS the marvellous gift on the first slide? He says it's The Answer, he says you can go home now, but he doesn't actually say what it IS!!!

Got a copy of the PPT anywhere?

[qatar.livejournal.com]

I've never seen a PPT of it; I've only heard the mp3. My guess is that it's a simplified expected utility equation, though: the probability of the favored outcome multiplied by the utility you'll receive if that outcome happens.

[thebenedictine.livejournal.com]

"It was a fabulous talk on how terrible people are at calculating probability and utility -- the two things we have to figure out in order to decide what course of action will make us most happy."

it's late... zzz... western rational bias, can we really reduce the human experience down to equations, no answer is offered here just questions... zzz...

[y-pestis.livejournal.com]

I have to say that the title makes me think Voltaire's Candide.

"This best of all possible worlds" and all that.